11a Ormerod Court, Gisborne has come close to quadrupling in value in 20 years.
The old adage that Melbourne house prices double every 10 years has blown out.
Latest figures from realestate.com.au show at Melbourne’s current 4.8 per cent 10-year average growth rate, it would take a $750,000 median house 14 years to reach $1.5m.
And with COVID-19 set to drag down household incomes, it will become even longer, experts are tipping.
RELATED: Phillip Island record: Ventnor dream home sells for more than $8m
How to present your house for sale, using stage four lockdown
Melbourne’s fastest-selling suburbs: Viewbank, North Warrandyte top list
Median house prices doubled in just 12 Melbourne suburbs over the past decade; the list dominated by Mornington Peninsula postcodes and former new housing estate suburbs.
SUBURBS THAT HAVE DOUBLED
Flinders: $785,000 (2010) – $2,472,400 (2020)
Fingal: $420,000 (2010) – $1.301m (2020)
Botanic Ridge: $270,000 (2010) – $720,000 (2020)
Rockbank: $250,000 (2010) – $610,000 (2020)
Tyabb: $375,000 (2010) – $892,500 (2020)
Waterways: $570,000 (2010) – $1.282m (2020)
St Andrews Beach: $492,500 (2010) – $1.095m (2020)
Beveridge: $279,250 (2010) – $590,000 (2020)
Eynesbury: $281,000 (2010) – $593,750 (2020)
Warneet: $287,000 (2010) – $603,000 (2020)
Diggers Rest: $263,500 (2010) – $538,500 (2020)
Cockatoo: $337,500 (2010) – $675,000 (2020)
Source: realestate.com.au
On the Mornington Peninsula, suburbs including Flinders and Fingal had home values come close to tripling in value due to a rapid shift in popularity, realestate.com.au chief economist Nerida Conisbee said.
“Flinders is like the new Portsea, when you look at the types of people moving down there and the types of houses being built — there’s definitely a bit of money flowing down to the area,” Ms Conisbee said.
Houses like 1859 Mornington Flinders Road, Flinders, aren’t what they used to be.
Ms Conisbee said regional cities and towns were the most likely to see prices double in the next 10 years, with significant appetite from Melbourne-based buyers already emerging outside the big smoke.
Kinglake, Kinglake West, Mount Macedon and Gisborne were among the towns just outside Melbourne to achieve the astonishing growth marker over the past decade.
The 11A Ormerod Court, Gisborne home of Rod Clough and his partner Leone Ramage is on track to quadruple since they bought it about 20 years ago.
Rod Clough and Leone Ramage are selling their Gisborne home of about 20 years for about four times what they paid for it. Picture: Mark Stewart
The pair are downsizing and were thrilled to have it listed at $890,000-$920,000.
“It’s as close to the city as Melton, but still has that country feel — and there are good schools,” Mr Clough said.
Further afield, Trentham, Kyneton, Ballarat Central, North Geelong and Malmsbury also had median property prices double.
Mr Clough said he had added the pool after watching the suburb’s prices rise.
Real Estate Institute of Victoria vice president Adam Docking said while one-time housing estate Botanic Ridge had also doubled, mature housing estate developments often benefited from one-off price jumps after local infrastructure was completed and land sales stopped.
Mr Docking said many Melburnians were still lulled into hoping prices would double every 10 years by fluctuations in Melbourne’s house price medians, which often surged rapidly.
“People just notice when they do shoot up,” he said.
“Everyone seems to sit there and say property prices double every 10 years, but right now they can’t — there can’t be exponential growth.”
Real Estate Buyers Advocates Association president Cate Bakos said the 10-year “rule” was a misconception, but it could be achieved with smart purchases.
Suburbs such as Glenroy could be in a position to have prices rise as a result of gentrification.
“Our ability to continue aggressive growth is based on wage growth,” Ms Bakos said.
“In the ‘50s we had one income households, in the ‘70s we started to see dual incomes with part time work … we are now in a position where there’s no real scope for that to continue. We are now at capacity for most two income households.”
She advised hunting in a suburb about to gentrify such as Glenroy and Reservoir, or one set to continue gentrifying, like Oakleigh, Preston, Chelsea and Footscray.
“If you know what you are doing and buy a great asset that’s placed for gentrification you will find a property that can double in 10 years,” Ms Bakos said.
MORE: How COVID-19 is changing new home designs
The Castle: Hamilton’s main street landmark home for sale
South Melbourne half-finished mansion for sale with plans
The post Melbourne suburbs where house prices really do double in 10 years appeared first on realestate.com.au.